Iraq the Worst Decision? Not even close.
By reading a very right-wing blog, I learned that someone thinks Iraq is the worst foreign policy decision the United States has ever made. The blog said, no way, the worst decision was when Harry Truman didn't just nuke the Soviets over the Berlin Blockade. I partly agree. It wasn't the worst decision, although the alternative presented is pretty bizarre.
A much more rational comparison would be against the decision to fight in Viet Nam. The jury is still out, since we aren't out of Iraq yet, but Viet Nam looks worse to this point.
For instance, the cost in cash may be comparable, but only before you consider inflation or the growth of the U.S. economy in the past 40 years. Viet Nam had an major impact on the overall economy. Iraq, at around a half percent of GDP, is economically inconsequential.
In terms of lives lost, either ours or theirs, the comparison is again one-sided. We've lost a couple thousand soldiers in Iraq and the worst case estimates for Iraqi deaths don't go much over 100,000 even with some dubious extrapolations. American deaths in Viet Nam came to more than 57,000 in addition to a couple million Vietnamese.
Socially, Iraq's impact on the United States has been minor. Viet Nam split America into two camps, with very little middle ground. Iraq has motivated relatively few people to demonstrate and, without a draft, almost no one to emigrate. Supporters increasingly have reservations and opponents can't forget that before we came in, Saddam Hussein ruled Baghdad. We're talking shades of gray rather than black and white.
On balance, it looks like Viet Nam was worse hands down. However, we aren't out yet and that leaves an unresolved danger. In the end, the rationale for fighting communism in Viet Nam didn't prove true. Communism did not spread, except in the chaos generated by the war itself and then only temporarily. The domino theory was just wrong.
We don't yet know where the invasion of Iraq will take us. We may have created a Sunni/Shiite flashpoint that will turn into bloody civil war. We may have empowered the Kurds sufficiently that the Turks will feel threatened and move to suppress them. We may have presented Al-Qaeda with a better opportunities for motivating and recruiting terrorists than what we shut down in Afghanistan.
We don't know yet. In a couple years, we may. Stay tuned.
A much more rational comparison would be against the decision to fight in Viet Nam. The jury is still out, since we aren't out of Iraq yet, but Viet Nam looks worse to this point.
For instance, the cost in cash may be comparable, but only before you consider inflation or the growth of the U.S. economy in the past 40 years. Viet Nam had an major impact on the overall economy. Iraq, at around a half percent of GDP, is economically inconsequential.
In terms of lives lost, either ours or theirs, the comparison is again one-sided. We've lost a couple thousand soldiers in Iraq and the worst case estimates for Iraqi deaths don't go much over 100,000 even with some dubious extrapolations. American deaths in Viet Nam came to more than 57,000 in addition to a couple million Vietnamese.
Socially, Iraq's impact on the United States has been minor. Viet Nam split America into two camps, with very little middle ground. Iraq has motivated relatively few people to demonstrate and, without a draft, almost no one to emigrate. Supporters increasingly have reservations and opponents can't forget that before we came in, Saddam Hussein ruled Baghdad. We're talking shades of gray rather than black and white.
On balance, it looks like Viet Nam was worse hands down. However, we aren't out yet and that leaves an unresolved danger. In the end, the rationale for fighting communism in Viet Nam didn't prove true. Communism did not spread, except in the chaos generated by the war itself and then only temporarily. The domino theory was just wrong.
We don't yet know where the invasion of Iraq will take us. We may have created a Sunni/Shiite flashpoint that will turn into bloody civil war. We may have empowered the Kurds sufficiently that the Turks will feel threatened and move to suppress them. We may have presented Al-Qaeda with a better opportunities for motivating and recruiting terrorists than what we shut down in Afghanistan.
We don't know yet. In a couple years, we may. Stay tuned.
posted by Rob Spooner at 4:16 PM
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