From Iraq to Iran

As I sit out here on the Oregon Coast, Iraq seems a very long way off. Every morning, my daily newspaper arrives at my house from Eugene with more news, but it's getting hard to pay attention. Today, I'm reading about how one general says the surge is too much, not long after another said it was about right, while the hawkish neocons think it's too little. I've pretty much resigned myself to seeing this thing dribble along indefinitely, probably getting worse, eventually falling apart so we have no choice but to leave.

But while that prospect depresses me, the idea of taking on Iran worries me much more. We're not in Iran yet. President Bush seems to think our big problem in Iraq is them, but U.S. casualties seem to mostly come from Sunnis, who are not allied with Iran.

My only hope is that even Bush can't fudge the math enough to start a third war. Our military has been designed to fight two wars simultaneously if necessary. Well, we're doing one in Afghanistan and one in Iraq now. We're only managing to do this much by a "stealth draft" of reservists and national guardsmen. The equipment is wearing out along with the personnel. We really can't handle a third war.

On the other hand, this president isn't very good at math. Or he may just figure there's a quick, low-cost way to fight Iran. I wouldn't put anything past him. It's scary.